A defect prediction method for a device manufacturing process involving processing a portion of a design layout onto a substrate, the method including: identifying a hot spot from the portion of the design layout; determining a range of values of a processing parameter of the device manufacturing process for the hot spot, wherein when the processing parameter has a value outside the range, a defect is produced from the hot spot with the device manufacturing process; determining an actual value of the processing parameter; determining or predicting, using the actual value, existence, probability of existence, a characteristic, or a combination thereof, of a defect produced from the hot spot with the device manufacturing process.