A method and system provide the ability to estimate the vulnerability of a repairable infrastructure system. A survival curve is constructed for one or more assets. A rehabilitation plan is prescribed for one or more failure states of the repairable infrastructure system. A cost estimation model is constructed for costs associated with the repairs for each of the failure states. A planning basis is specified. A multiple probability simulation is conducted that estimates a potential restoration cost for a possible failure. The simulation is repeated to acquire a distribution of potential restoration costs. A vulnerability estimation is determined and provided based on the distribution.