Provided is a method of accurately predicting the thermal donor formation behavior in a silicon wafer, a method of evaluating a silicon wafer using the prediction method, and a method of producing a silicon wafer using the evaluation method. The method of predicting the formation behavior of thermal donors, includes: a first step of setting an initial oxygen concentration condition before performing heat treatment on the silicon wafer for reaction rate equations based on both a bond-dissociation model of oxygen clusters associated with the diffusion of interstitial oxygen and a bonding model of oxygen clusters associated with the diffusion of oxygen dimers; a second step of calculating the formation rate of oxygen clusters formed through the heat treatment using the reaction rate equations; and a third step of calculating the formation rate of thermal donors formed through the heat treatment based on the formation rate of the oxygen clusters.