The invention discloses a ground prediction method for aerodynamic heat and material catalytic characteristic coupling effect. The ground prediction method includes analyzing material surface heat flow of different materials under a surface catalytic characteristic condition according to a theoretical method; establishing a function relation that the material surface catalytic effect changes along with material surface catalytic compound coefficients; subjecting typical part heat environments to engineering evaluation based on flight states and aerodynamic configurations, and combining the typical part heat environment engineering calculation results with the function relation so as to predict an air vehicle surface heat flow response course in a flight state; adopting a heat transfer theory method so as to predict an air vehicle internal temperature response course in the flight state. The ground prediction method has the advantages that accurate description on the aerodynamic heat and material catalytic characteristic coupling effect is achieved, and powerful support for exquisite design of heatproof and heat-insulating systems is provided.