Systems and methods for generating a crop yield estimate for an area as small as an individual field from images captured by a satellite are disclosed. The system generates simulations of crop yields in a region that includes the area by applying combinations of different parameters to a crop yield models. Observable quantities for simulated yields are determined from the simulations. The simulations and the observable properties are used to train a statistic model for the region that has two or more variables. Images captured by a satellite that include at least a portion of the area are obtained. Crop information is then determined from the images and weather information associated with the dates that the images where captured is obtained. The statistical model is then applied to the crop information and the weather information to determine a crop yield estimate.