A storage controller may be configured to assess the reliability of a solid-state storage medium. The storage controller may be further configured to project, forecast, and/or estimate storage reliability at a future time. The projection may be based on a currently reliability metric of the storage and a reliability model. The portions or sections of the solid-state storage media may be retired in response the projected reliability metric failing to satisfy a reliability threshold. The reliability threshold may be based on data correction and/or reconstruction characteristics. The projected reliability metrics of a plurality of erase blocks of a storage division may be combined, and one or more of the erase blocks may be retired in response to determining that the combined reliability metric projection fails to satisfy the reliability threshold.