A system for probabilistic matching of audio sample from a television program includes a computer readable storage medium having encoded thereon an audio matching program; and a processor that executes the audio matching program. The processor receives reference audio for time slices corresponding to a broadcast television program for each of a plurality of channels broadcasting television programming; receives a first audio sample from a media device on which is displayed the broadcast television program; selects one or more candidate channels to test to determine a channel to which the media device is tuned; compares the first audio sample to the selected candidate channels to determine a match between the first audio sample and one or more of the selected candidate channels; and when the first audio sample matches a reference audio from a selected candidate channel, identifying, with a specified probability, the selected candidate channel as the tuned to channel.