A maintenance scheduling system for gas turbine engine components includes a computer system configured to receive a set of measured parameters for each gas turbine engine component in a plurality of substantially identical gas turbine engine components, and determine a variation model based on the set of measured parameters. Each of the gas turbine engine components is a single route component and has been utilized in a substantially identical single route. The computer system includes at least one simulated engine model. The simulated engine model is configured to determine a predicted operation of each gas turbine engine component in the plurality of substantially identical gas turbine engine components. A correlation system is configured to correlate variations in the set of parameters for each of the gas turbine engine components in the plurality of substantially identical gas turbine engine components with a set of the predicted operations of each gas turbine engine component in the plurality of substantially identical gas turbine engine components, thereby generating a predictive model based on the variations. A maintenance schedule module is configured determine a predictive model operable to determine a predicted wear pattern of a second single route component that is substantially identical to the gas turbine engine components.