The embodiment of the invention provides a railway fastener elastic strip breakage splashing risk prediction method and device, and relates to the technical field of traffic safety. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model and setting the three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model in a service state; establishing a coupling space simulation model of the vehicle and the steel rail; according to the coupling space simulation model, dynamic response data between the vehicle and the steel rail under the condition of corrugationof the steel rail are obtained, inputting the dynamic response data as excitation into a three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model; fracture splashing risk data of the elastic strip is obtained. The method has the advantages that the spatter track can be simulated according to the fracture spatter risk data, accordingly, spatter risks of the elastic strips can be predicted according to thefracture spatter risk data of the elastic strips, risk prediction results can be acquired, comprehensive protection measures can be taken for fracture spatter of the elastic strips, and safe runningof trains during running can be guaranteed.