The invention provides a Kaplan-Meier-method-based method for calculating an interval of traffic accident occurrence of a driver. An observation sample is selected; the number of times of violation of the sample during an illegal statistics period and classification is carried out; event occurrence is defined and sample data are classified, wherein the sample data include complete data and censored data; an accident interval is calculated for the sample data; an all-sample matrix is established by using each drive as an observation sample, the number of times of violation of the driver as an independent variable, and the accident interval as a dependent variable; and the all-sample matrix is processed by using a Kaplan-Meier-method-based method to obtain a survival function estimator and a cumulative risk function and thus survival time of the driver is obtained by the survival function estimator, so that the traffic accident interval is obtained. With the method, intervals, being survival time and median survival time, of traffic accident occurrence of drivers with different numbers of times of violation are obtained; and risk rates of instantaneous accidents of drivers with different numbers of times of violation during the observation period can be obtained.