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发明公开
CN105760963A 一种旅游区居民生活用电的预测方法 审中-实审

一种旅游区居民生活用电的预测方法
摘要：
本发明公开了一种旅游区居民生活用电的预测方法，其特征在于，包括如下步骤：步骤1、采集数据：包括目标年的人均用电量C、目标年的常住人口总量N、目标年的流动人口总量M、目标年的人口的时间分布特性和最大负荷利用小时数；步骤2、计算等效常住居民N1：步骤3、计算人口不均衡系数σ；步骤4、进行最大负荷利用小时数的修正；步骤5、需用电量An预测；步骤6、居民用电最大负荷Pn·max预测。使旅游度假区的居民生活用电预测更符合实际，本发明不依赖于历史数据，适用于历史数据缺乏或不具参考价值地区的居民生活用电预测，尤其适用于旅游区居民生活用电的预测。
摘要（英）：

The invention discloses a tourist area resident household electricity prediction method, characterized by comprising the steps of: step 1, collecting data: including target year per capita household electricity consumption C, target year permanent resident total population N, target year total floating population M, target year population distribution characteristics and a maximum load equivalent hour; step 2, calculating equivalent permanent residents N1; step 3, calculating a population imbalance coefficient sigma; step 4, correcting the maximum load equivalent hour; step 5, predicting required electric quantity An; and step 6, predicting a residential electricity consumption maximum load Pn.max. The method makes tourist area resident household electricity prediction more practical, does not depend on historic data, and is suitable for resident household electricity prediction of areas lacking historical data or having no reference values, especially for tourist area resident household electricity prediction.

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