The invention discloses a method for determining the service life terminal and estimating the current historical service life and a system thereof. The method for estimating the current historical service life comprises the following steps: driver load waveforms are generated according to the load information and the movement position information of a transmission mechanism; the current historical service life weight coefficients of the transmission mechanism are acquired according to the driver load waveforms; the weight coefficients are used for weighting and calculating the current initialhistorical service life of the transmission mechanism, thereby acquiring the current historical service life of the transmission mechanism. In the method for determining the service life terminal, aninitial value of the previous accumulated historical service life is set in advance; the current historical service life is added to the previous accumulated historical service life; the sum is compared with the set estimated expected service life of the transmission mechanism; whether the transmission mechanism reaches the service life terminal is determined. By adopting the technical proposal of the invention, the accuracy of the estimated historical service life of the transmission mechanism can be improved.