Abstract:
The present disclosure relates to a computer system configured establish and utilize a database for online ad realization prediction in an ad display platform associated with N parties, wherein N is a positive integral greater than 1. The computer system is configured obtain a party hierarchy for each of the N parties including a plurality of features of the party; select a target ad display event including N features, each of the N features corresponding to a node in a party hierarchy; obtain a prior probability reflecting an unconditional probability of ad realization occurrence at the target ad display event among all possible ad display events; for each of the N features: determine a marginal prior probability by decomposing components associated with the other N−1 features from the prior probability; determine a marginal posterior probability based on the marginal prior probability; and save the marginal posterior probability in the corresponding node of the party hierarchy.
Abstract:
A computer system implementing a method for ad realization prediction may be configured to receive a plurality of target realization factors associated with a target ad display opportunity; determine a reference realization probability score of the target ad display opportunity based on a global reference realization probability distribution associated with an ad display realization probability decision tree; using the reference realization probability score, determine an ad realization probability score of the target ad display opportunity according to a piecewise calibrated realization probability function; and return the ad realization probability score.