A method for scheduling MapReduce tasks includes receiving a set of task statistics corresponding to task execution within a MapReduce job, estimating a completion time for a set of tasks to be executed to provide an estimated completion time, calculating a soft decision point based on a convergence of a workload distribution corresponding to a set of executed tasks, calculating a hard decision point based on the estimated completion time for the set of tasks to be executed, determining a selected decision point based on the soft decision point and the hard decision point, and scheduling upcoming tasks for execution based on the selected decision point. The method may also include estimating a map task completion time and estimating a shuffle operation completion time. A computer program product and computer system corresponding to the method are also disclosed.