In one embodiment, a data storage system includes a head; a drive mechanism for passing a medium over the head; a controller electrically coupled to the head; logic encoded in or available to the controller for: periodically determining a stopwrite threshold based on a standard deviation or a variance at a current position error signal sample, wherein a smoothing factor applied to a subsequent calculation of the standard deviation or variance is altered based at least in part on a current magnitude of the standard deviation or the variance; determining whether the current position error signal sample exceeds the stopwrite threshold; disabling writing when the current position error signal sample exceeds the stopwrite threshold; and enabling writing when the current position error signal sample does not exceed the stopwrite threshold. Other systems, methods, and computer program products are described according to more embodiments.