Techniques are described that update a caller on call progress status using various effects based on a likelihood that the call will connect with the callee, and/or a likelihood that the caller will prematurely terminate the call. In some examples, a machine-learned model may determine a likelihood that a call will connect based on conditions associated with the callee. In some cases, a machine-learned model may determine a likelihood that a call will be prematurely terminated by the caller based on conditions associated with the caller. Animations, haptic outputs, sounds, and/or other content may be used to indicate likelihood of the call connecting to the caller.