A system includes a machine learning module configured to train a location prediction model using features constructed from mobile device data with time stamps in a training time period, and labels extracted from mobile device data with time stamps in a training time frame. The system further includes a prediction module configured apply the prediction model to a feature set constructed using mobile device data associated with a mobile device with time stamps in a prediction time period to obtain a prediction result corresponding to the mobile device. The system further includes a calibration module configured to obtain a calibration model corresponding to an information campaign, and a calibrated prediction module configured to apply the calibration model to the prediction result to obtain a calibrated probability for the mobile device to have at least one location event at any of one or more locations associated with the information campaign during a prediction time frame.