Systems, methods, and computer-readable media are provided for determining a change in a state of performance of a given network application. In one aspect, a method includes receiving, at a network controller, a set of measurements for an application; determining, at the controller, a predicted goodput and an application response delay for the application; based on a comparison of each of the predicted goodput and the application response delay to a respective threshold, detecting a transition in state of performance of the application; and communicating the transition in the state of performance of the application to a network monitoring terminal.