Systems and methods are disclosed that identify users of a media distribution system that tend to consume popular media items prior to such media items gaining popularity. For example, a set of early adopters may be identified that tend to listen to music associated with particular artists before such artists become popular. The systems and methods disclosed may also utilize identified early adopters to determine relatively obscure or unpopular media items (or creators thereof) that are likely to become popular in the future. Illustratively, an obscure artist whose content is commonly consumed by early adopters can be identified as potentially achieving widespread popularity in the future. These media items predicted to become popular or media item creators may then be recommended to other users of the media distribution system.