Systems, methods, and computer-readable media are provided for identification of patients having an elevated near-term risk of chronic kidney disease progression, including quantitatively predicting whether or not an elevated risk of progression of Stage 3 or Stage 4 chronic kidney disease is likely within a time interval of up to 36 months subsequent to computing the prediction. Based on the prediction, appropriate care providers may be notified so that the risk of CKD progression may be mitigated. In some embodiments, serial measurements are obtained of urine osmolality, and a challenge with an AVP V2 antagonist and serum sodium concentration is provided. From a time series based on the serial measurements, estimates of each variable's velocity and/or doubling-time may be determined. These values then may be combined via a multivariable mathematical model for providing a leading indicator of near-term future abnormalities in kidney function.