Systems and methods for providing improved measurements and predictions of geometry induced overlay errors are disclosed. Information regarding variations of overlay errors is obtained and analyzed to improve semiconductor processes as well as lithography patterning. In some embodiments, a cascading analysis process is utilized to breakdown the wafer geometry induced overlay into various components. The breakdown analysis may also be utilized to determine effectiveness factors for the various components, which in turn may improve the prediction accuracy of the impact of wafer geometry on wafer overlay. Furthermore, the measurements and/or predictions of the wafer geometry induced overlay errors may be utilized to provide overlay monitoring and correction solutions.