The invention discloses a production water demand prediction method based on system dynamics, belongs to the field of water demand prediction, and a multi-factor industrial water demand system dynamics prediction model under the influence of human activities and an agricultural water demand system dynamics prediction model based on a water mechanism prediction method under climate changes are established. Aiming at an industrial water demand prediction part, a traditional industrial water demand quota method is combined with system dynamics; aiming at an agricultural water demand prediction part, a system dynamics model based on water mechanism prediction is established, and future precipitation under different carbon emission scenes under climate change is introduced;. According to the method, factors such as economic driving, social influence, climate change and policy constraints are fully considered; the water demand change mechanism is researched from the internal structure of thesystem, the problems of incomplete factor selection and poor simulation effect in production water demand prediction of an existing system dynamics method are solved, and the prediction effectivenessand accuracy are improved from the two aspects of a model structure and a prediction factor.