The invention discloses a high-speed train axle temperature prediction method based on stepwise regression analysis. Interpolation processing and standardized transformation are conducted on axle temperature acquired from a high-speed train and data of factors affecting axle temperature change, and a correlation coefficient matrix R(0) is established; through the stepwise regression analysis, the factors remarkably affecting axle temperature change are screened out; the factors and a standardized regression equation are utilized to establish an axle temperature prediction equation; finally, the data of relevant factors obtained after screening are substituted into the axle temperature prediction equation to obtain an axle temperature prediction value. By the adoption of the prediction method, the change trend of the axle temperature can be accurately predicted, and a certain theoretical basis is provided for axle operation and maintenance.