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发明公开
CN105550772A 一种在线历史数据潮流趋势分析方法 无效 - 驳回

一种在线历史数据潮流趋势分析方法
摘要：
本发明提供了一种在线历史数据潮流趋势的分析方法，包括：A.判断在线历史数据序列的平稳性；B.用差分方法对所述在线历史数据序列平稳化处理；C.确定ARIMA(p,d,q)模型中的p和q；D.在指数平滑模型下，观察ARIMA模型的正态分布；E.在线分析及预测所述在线历史数据。本发明可实现对全国电力系统历史数据进行分析，基于时间序列的ARIMA模型，从大量的一系列按照时间先后顺序取得的数据对电网潮流的未来趋势进行预测。
摘要（英）：

The invention provides an online historical data tendency analysis method, and the method comprises the steps: A, analyzing the stability of an online historical data sequence; B, carrying out the stationary processing of the online historical data sequence through employing a difference method; C, determining p and q in an ARIMA(p, d, q) model; D, observing the normal distribution of the ARIMA model under an exponential smoothing model; E, carrying out the online analysis and prediction of online historical data. The method can achieve the analysis of the historical data of a national power system, and achieves the prediction of the future tendency of power network tide based on the ARIMA mode of time sequence through a series of data obtained according to the time sequence.

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