The invention discloses a method for quantitatively evaluating the pipe condensation probability of a crude oil pipeline, and relates to the technical field of pipeline systems. The method comprises the following steps of: 1) automatically extracting and analyzing the safety influence factor; 2) counting a data distribution rule of the influence factor; 3) calculating certainty shutdown and restart-up pressure; 4) setting an evaluation frequency and randomly sampling parameters; 5) calculating uncertainty shutdown and restart-up pressure; 6) counting a calculation frequency of restart-up failure; 7) obtaining a calculation result (the pipe condensation probability of the pipeline); 8) judging whether ineffectiveness judgment can be accepted; 9) if the ineffectiveness judgment cannot be accepted, adjusting a flowing guarantee scheme, turning to the step 2) of counting the data distribution rule of the influence factor, and if the ineffectiveness judgment can be accepted, submitting the flowing guarantee scheme. By the method, the crude oil pipeline flowing safety can be evaluated; and technical support can be supplied to safety and high-efficiency running of the pipeline.