The invention relates to a method and device for performing the movement forecast in the video coding, the method comprises a. selecting a set of reference areas from the coded areas on the current frame; b. estimating the movement vector difference values between the current area and each reference area; c. determining the reference area corresponding to the minimum movement vector difference value, and judging that whether the minimum movement vector difference value is smaller than a preset threshold value; d. setting the movement vector and the reference frame of the current area as the determined movement vector of the reference area and the reference frame, if the minimum movement vector difference value is smaller than the preset threshold value; e. if the minimum movement vector difference value is larger than the preset threshold value, for each forecast direction, setting the movement vector of the current area as 0 vector or an intermediate vector, and setting the reference frame of the current area as the reference frame most adjacent to the current area or the reference frame most constantly adopted by one set of reference areas. According to the invention, the high coding performance can be obtained.